August Primaries Set the Stage for November

Date:
Author: CEN
Homepage News

With the 2026 general election coming into focus, August primaries across the country helped set the stage for November, including in several states in the CEN network. From open governor’s races to closely divided legislatures and a significant number of open seats, this year’s elections could reshape the political landscape in a number of states where energy and other major policy debates are underway.

Here’s a look at what happened in the August primaries in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida and the races we’ll be watching as voters head back to the polls in November.

Michigan
August 4 Primary

Current Legislative Breakdown

  • Senate (38 seats) [Majority is 20 seats; Supermajority ⅔ (26)] – D: 20 R: 18
    • All 38 seats are up in 2026; 21 seats are open due to term limits or seeking other office
  • House (110 seats) [Majority is 56 seats; Supermaority ⅔ (74)] – R: 58 D: 52
    • All 110 seats are up in 2026; 23 seats are being vacated by members for various reasons

How the races went: 

Gubernatorial Race

Term-limited Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) is not on the 2026 ballot this year, leaving Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) to win the nomination for the Democrats by a wide margin over Chris Swanson (D), the Genesee County sheriff (the field narrowed in the last few months after Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist dropped out in January to run for secretary of state, and former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan ended his independent bid in May). Benson advances to face the Republican nominee in November.

On the Republican side, Rep. John James secured a small but not insignificant win over businessman Perry Johnson. Johnson poured roughly $32 million of his own money into the race, which made it the most expensive gubernatorial primary in Michigan history. President Trump gave James his endorsement in June which cleared the field of rivals. Senate Republican Leader Aric Nesbitt (R) bowed out of the race in June, and former Attorney General Mike Cox (R) left the field in mid-July. Both endorsed James, but their names stayed on the ballot anyway, and together they still took roughly 15% of the vote. 

Both parties have selected their lieutenant governor candidates, with Democrats selecting Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks and Republicans selecting State Rep. Jay DeBoyer (R-Clay)—whom James has supported since he won the party nomination early in the month. Both gubernatorial candidates and their respective running mates will appear as a joint ticket in November.

Legislative Races

Michigan’s legislative primaries produced relatively few incumbent defeats but significant turnover ahead of November. Forty-four sitting legislators are not seeking reelection, leaving 46 of the state’s 148 legislative seats open. Both parties are fielding candidates in every House and Senate district. Republicans currently hold a 58–52 House majority, while Democrats control the Senate 20–18, with all 148 legislative seats on the ballot this year.

In House District (HD) 2, Democrats selected Joanna Whaley, who defeated Frank Liberati 56%–34% (6,484–3,945), for the open seat. The district was held by Liberati’s brother, three-term Rep. Tullio Liberati, who is retiring. Whaley now faces Republican Ron Kokinda in November in a district that favored the Democratic presidential nominee by just 1.5 points in 2024.

The cycle’s lone incumbent primary defeat came in HD 8, where three-term Democratic Rep. Helena Scott, the former chair of the House Energy Committee, lost to Chris Gilmer-Hill, 48.8%–43.0%. Gilmer-Hill now faces Republican Bruce Langran in the heavily Democrat-favored district.

There was significant turnover in the Senate as well. In Grand Rapids, the Democratic primary race between East Grand Rapids Commissioner Abbie Groff-Blaszak and state Rep. Phil Skaggs, found Groff-Blaszak winning 48%–33% to succeed retiring Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks in Senate District (SD) 29—Skaggs’ defeat was particularly notable because Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed him. In Detroit’s open SD 1, attorney Justin Onwenu defeated former state Rep. Abraham Aiyash by roughly 5,600 votes, while John Conyers III emerged from a crowded 10-candidate field with about 24% to win the nomination for retiring Sen. Stephanie Chang’s SD 3 seat.

The larger question heading into November is control of both chambers. Senate Democrats are defending several closely divided districts, including Sen. Darrin Camilleri’s SD 4 (R+0.9 in the 2024 presidential race), Sen. Veronica Klinefelt’s SD 11 (R+1.8) and Sen. Kevin Hertel’s SD 12 (R+7.0). Republicans have a crossover seat of their own in SD 30, where Sen. Mark Huizenga faces Democratic state Rep. Carol Glanville in a district that voted D+4.3.

The House has an even broader group of competitive districts. Democrats are defending seats that voted Republican at the presidential level, including HD 3 (R+7.2), HD 13 (R+1.9), open HD 15 (R+2.1), open HD 31 (R+2.7), HD 61 (R+5.1), and HD 76 (R+0.2). Republicans, meanwhile, are defending several narrowly Republican districts, including open HD 54 (R+1.0), HD 55 (R+0.7), HD 86 (R+0.3), and HD 109 (R+0.6).

Republicans experienced less upheaval in their primaries, although a few open-seat contests were extremely close. In SD 20, Chris Moraitis narrowly defeated Kenny Clevenger 42.6%–42.0% for the Republican nomination to succeed outgoing Senate Republican Leader Aric Nesbitt. In the House, Roman Gaskey won the GOP nomination for open HD 54 by just 61 votes, 50.3%–49.7%, and will face Democrat Sarah Pounds in November.

With 44 open seats, every district contested by both major parties, and relatively narrow partisan margins in both chambers, Michigan is positioned for substantial legislative turnover regardless of which party prevails in November. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the House, while Republicans need a net gain of two to capture the Senate, making control of both chambers a central question heading into the general election.

Wisconsin
August 11 Primary

Current Legislative Breakdown

  • Senate (33 seats) [Majority is 17 seats; Supermajority ⅔ (22)] – D:15 R:18
    •  17 of 33 seats are up in 2026
  • House (99 seats) [Majority 50 seats; Supermaority ⅔ (66)] – R:54 D:45
    • All 99 seats are up in 2026

How the races went: 

Gubernatorial Race

With incumbent Governor Tony Evers (D) retiring, the open gubernatorial race produced a razor-thin winner for Democrats in the primary and a landslide on the Republican side. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won the seven-candidate Democrat primary with 39.8% (315,308 votes), edging past state Rep. Francesca Hong, who received 39.3% (311,512 votes), by just 3,796 votes out of more than 790,000 cast. Kelda Roys finished a distant third with 7.5%. Crowley’s victory was notable after a turbulent final month: he suspended his campaign in early July to endorse Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, then reentered the race ten days later with retiring Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement after Rodriguez withdrew. Hong had led Crowley by 20 to 30 points in pre-primary polling.

On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany cruised to the nomination with 95.3% (467,830 votes) against Andy Manske’s 4.6%. Tiffany, who had President Trump’s endorsement, will face Crowley in November in a state Trump carried by just 0.9 points in 2024.

Legislative Races

Wisconsin’s legislative primaries were relatively quiet for incumbents but set up an unusually competitive November map. Republicans currently control both chambers, 54–45 in the Assembly and 18–15 in the Senate, with all 99 Assembly seats and 17 of the 33 Senate seats on the ballot this year. Just one of the 132 sitting legislators seeking reelection lost a primary, while 13 incumbents are not seeking reelection. 

Of the 116 legislative seats on the ballot, 21 are open, and 105 will feature both a Democratic and Republican candidate in November. Only 11 general election races will be uncontested by one of the two major parties—a new low—with Democrats conceding eight districts and Republicans three.

The lone incumbent defeat came in heavily Democratic-led Assembly District 8 in Milwaukee, where first-time candidate Ismael Luna defeated three-term Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez 70.3% – 29.6% (2,201–928). Ortiz-Velez drew criticism from her Democrats for crossing party lines to work with Republicans on legislation, and Milwaukee County Democrats took the unusual step of seeking a state party endorsement for Luna.

The bigger story heading into November is a group of Republican-held districts that were closely divided —or even favored Democrats—at the presidential level. In the Senate, Republicans are defending two open seats on Democratic-leaning turf: SD 5, being vacated by Republican Rob Hutton, voted D+5.9 in 2024 and will pit Democrat Robyn Vining against Republican Mike Roberts; and SD 21, being vacated by Republican Van Wanggaard, was D+1.2 and features Democrat Trevor Jung against Republican Jim Croft. Republican Sen. Howard Marklein is also seeking reelection in SD 17, a district that voted D+1.0, against Democrat Jenna Jacobson. Democrats, meanwhile, will defend Sen. Jeff Smith’s SD 31, which was just D+2.2.

The Assembly has a similar set of crossover districts. Republicans are defending two open seats that voted Democrat in 2024: AD 21 (D+4.0), where Republican Dylan Pfaffenbach faces Democrat Daniel Bukiewicz, and AD 53 (D+4.4), where Republican David Daniels faces Democrat Becky Nichols. Republican incumbents Todd Novak in AD 51 (D+3.5), Bob Donovan in AD 61 (D+2.2), and Ben Franklin in AD 88 (D+0.3) are also running in districts favored by Democrats in the last presidential election. On the other side, Democrat Steve Doyle is defending AD 94, which voted R+2.1, while Democratic-held AD 89 and AD 95 were only D+2.0 and D+2.2, respectively.

The legislature will also lose several prominent Republican members. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, the longest-serving speaker in Wisconsin history, is retiring from the safely Republican AD 33 (R+29.5), where Republican Steve Wicklund and Democrat Maria Elena Bisabarros won contested primaries. Senate Republicans are also replacing incumbents in several open seats, including SD 9 (R+15.7), SD 11 (R+27.9), SD 23 (R+35.8), and SD 25 (R+13.6).

With Republicans starting from a nine-seat Assembly advantage and a three-seat Senate advantage, and the presence of multiple Republican-held seats in Democratic leaning districts—particularly the open SD 5 and SD 21 Senate seats and open AD 21 and AD 53 Assembly seats, Wisconsin will be an interesting state to watch in November.

Minnesota
August 11 Primary

Current Legislative Breakdown

  • Senate (67 seats) [Majority is 34 seats; Supermajority ⅔ (45)] – D:34  R:33
    • All 67 seats are up in 2026
  • House (134 seats) [Majority is 68 seats; Supermaority ⅔ (90)] – R:67 D:67
    • All 134 seats are up in 2026

How the races went: 

Gubernatorial Race

With Gov. Tim Walz retiring, Minnesota’s gubernatorial seat is open this election.  

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar won the Democratic primary, with about 89% of the vote over six challengers including Kobey Layne—a former Minnesota Republican legislative staffer who received ~6% of the vote—and several other lesser known candidates who secured less than 2% of the vote each. 

The Republican primary was considerably more competitive. House Speaker Lisa Demuth won the seven-candidate GOP primary with about 43% of the vote, defeating MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, who received roughly 32%, and businessman Kendall Qualls, who took about 21%. President Trump backed Lindell, while the Minnesota Republican Party endorsed Qualls at its May convention. 

No matter the outcome, Minnesota will elect its first woman governor this November.

Legislative Races

Minnesota heads into November with control of both legislative chambers up for grabs. Democrats currently hold the 67-seat Senate by a single seat, 34–33, while the 134-seat House is tied 67–67. All 201 seats are on the ballot, and unusually high turnover adds another variable: 44 current legislators are departing their seats, whether through retirement or pursuit of other offices (approximately 22% of the legislature). 

Despite that turnover, incumbents who did seek reelection largely survived the August primary. Just one of 201 incumbents running was defeated. In SD 5,  House Republican Rep. Mike Wiener ousted incumbent Sen. Paul Utke by roughly 200 votes after securing the local party endorsement this spring. The heavily Republican district (R+46.0 in the 2024 presidential race) is unlikely to affect partisan control, but Wiener’s win was the only incumbent primary defeat in either chamber.

The bigger story lies in the November playing field. Of Minnesota’s 201 legislative districts, 180 will feature both a Democratic and Republican candidate. Republicans failed to field candidates in the remaining 21 districts, while Democrats did not concede a single seat. Several incumbents will also defend districts where the 2024 presidential result was extremely close, including Republican Rep. Aaron Repinski in HD 26A (R+0.3), Republican Rep. Danny Nadeau in HD 34A (D+0.8), Republican Sen. Karin Housley in SD 33 (D+0.5) and Republican Sen. Julia Coleman in SD 48 (D+0.2).

Open seats could be particularly important in determining control. Republican-held HD 37A, being vacated by Rep. Kristin Robbins, had a presidential margin of just R+0.4, while Republican-held SD 54, being vacated by Sen. Eric Pratt, was only R+4.3. Republican-held SD 24 (R+3.8) is also open following Sen. Carla Nelson’s departure. On the other side, Democrats are defending several competitive seats, including SD 3 (R+1.4), SD 4 (R+6.6), SD 14 (R+4.1), and SD 41 (D+1.5).

With the House starting from a 67–67 tie and Democrats possessing only a one-seat Senate majority, a few competitive districts could determine whether Minnesota remains divided or Democrats emerge with control of both chambers and an opportunity for a governing trifecta if Amy Klobuchar also wins the governor’s race.

Florida
August 18 Primary

Current Legislative Breakdown

  • Senate (40 seats) [Majority is 21 seats; Supermajority ⅔ (27)] – D:12  R:27 (supermajority)
    • 20 of 40 seats are up in 2026
  • House (120 seats) [Majority is 61 seats; Supermaority ⅔ (80)] – R:85 (supermajority) D:34
    • All 120 seats are up in 2026

How the races went: 

Gubernatorial Race

Florida’s open gubernatorial race is set for November, with Republican Rep. Byron Donalds facing former Republican Congressman David Jolly, the Democratic nominee, as Gov. Ron DeSantis prepares to leave office after two terms. Republicans have held the governorship since 1999 and the race is currently rated Very Likely Republican. Florida also moved sharply toward Republicans at the presidential level in 2024, voting R+13.1.

Donalds won a crowded Republican primary with 47.8% (810,675 votes), defeating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who finished second with 25.2% (426,787). First-time candidate James Fishback finished third with 10.5%, while former House Speaker Paul Renner took 8.6%. Donalds entered the race with President Trump’s endorsement and ultimately finished more than 22 points ahead of Collins, whom DeSantis appointed lieutenant governor last year but did not formally endorse in the primary.

For the Democrats, Jolly won decisively with 61.0% (761,674 votes) in a six-candidate field. His nearest opponent, Dayna Foster, received just 15.1%, followed by former state Rep. Dotie Joseph at 9.6%. Jolly represented the Tampa Bay area in Congress as a Republican from 2014 to 2017 before leaving the party, giving Democrats an unusual nominee as they attempt to break a nearly three-decade Republican hold on the governor’s office. It’s worth noting that the 2022 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee was Charlie Crist—another former Republican elected official turned Democrat who represented the same district as Jolly in Congress. So perhaps Jolly’s nomination isn’t so unusual after all.

Donalds enters the general election as the clear favorite. Republicans currently hold a statewide trifecta and large supermajorities in both legislative chambers, and the gubernatorial contest is not presently considered seriously competitive. The November ballot will also include several independent candidates, but the central contest will be between Donalds and Jolly.

Legislative Races

Florida’s legislative primaries produced no incumbent defeats among lawmakers seeking reelection to their current seats, leaving Republicans strongly positioned to maintain control of both chambers in November. Republicans currently hold a 27–12 Senate majority, exactly the 27 seats needed for a two-thirds supermajority, and an 85–34 House majority, five seats above the 80 required for a supermajority. Twenty of the Senate’s 40 seats and all 120 House seats are on the ballot this year.

Turnover is instead being driven primarily by departures. Thirty-eight sitting legislators did not file for reelection, many because of term limits, including several of the legislature’s most prominent members. 

Former Senate President Kathleen Passidomo and Sen. Joe Gruters, the Republican National Committee chairman, are both leaving the Senate. In the House, Speaker Daniel Perez resigned both the speakership and his seat effective August 21 to become ambassador to Brazil. Speaker pro tempore Wyman Duggan, who succeeded him as speaker, is also not seeking reelection.

Overall, 37 of the 140 legislative seats on the ballot are open, representing 26.4% of this year’s races. Thirty-three general-election races are effectively uncontested, and both major parties fielded candidates in 106 districts. Another 30 districts have only one major-party candidate—18 with only a Democratic candidate and 12 with only a Republican candidate.

The most notable member-versus-member contest came in an open Senate race, where House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell defeated fellow Democratic Rep. Michele Rayner by roughly 20 points. Because no Republican filed for the seat, Driskell effectively secured election with her primary victory. Several House races also produced competitive primaries. In HD 21, Jacquelyn Randall emerged as the leading Democrat from a five-way primary with just 27.7%, narrowly defeating Antione Fields at 26.7%; no Republican filed for the heavily Democratic-leaning seat. In HD 113, former Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro won a tight three-way Republican primary with 42.4%, edging past Frank Lago at 41.1%, and will face Democrat Gloria Romero in November. The district favored the Republican presidential nominee by 5.1 points in 2024, making it one of the more plausible general-election contests among the races highlighted in the primary results.

Despite the number of open seats, control of either chamber is unlikely to be seriously threatened in November. Republicans begin the general election with supermajorities in both chambers, no incumbent was knocked out in a primary for their existing seat, and nearly one-quarter of legislative general elections lack candidates from both major parties. The more significant question for November is anticipated to be less about control of the legislature, but rather if Republicans can preserve their two-thirds supermajorities, particularly their exact 27-seat supermajority in the Senate.